The Changing Tariffs Landscape: What We Know, What We Think We Know, What We Don’t Know
Over the past year, U.S. trade policy has changed at an unprecedented pace. New tariffs, legal challenges, executive actions, and shifting international negotiations have created an environment where businesses must continually adapt to changing rules.
Beginning in 2025, the Trump administration expanded tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and numerous other trading partners. Those actions significantly increased the average tariff rate on imported goods and raised costs for businesses that depend on global supply chains. For many manufacturers, distributors, and retailers, those additional costs were ultimately absorbed by companies and consumers.
A major turning point came on February 20, 2026, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. While the decision invalidated tariffs issued under that authority, it did not end the administration's broader trade agenda. Instead, new tariffs have been introduced under different statutory authorities, reinforcing that tariffs will likely remain a central part of U.S. trade policy.
What Businesses Know
Although the legal landscape continues to evolve, several trends have become clear.
The administration has indicated it intends to continue using other trade laws—including Sections 232, 301, 122, and potentially Section 338—to impose new tariffs where permitted by Congress. Additional investigations involving national security, unfair trade practices, and foreign trade policies are already underway, meaning businesses should expect further developments throughout the year.
At the same time, international trade negotiations have become more complex. Several countries have slowed or reconsidered trade agreements following the Supreme Court's decision, while others continue negotiating new arrangements with the United States.
What Businesses Expect
One of the biggest questions is how refunds for previously collected IEEPA tariffs will be handled.
The Court of International Trade is expected to establish procedures allowing eligible importers to seek refunds for duties that may have been unlawfully collected. However, because refunds generally belong to the importer of record, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and other businesses that ultimately absorbed those costs may need to coordinate closely with their import partners to protect their interests.
Another closely watched issue is the future of the de minimis exemption.
Detroit Axle's lawsuit challenging the suspension of the de minimis exemption continues before the U.S. Court of International Trade. The case raises important questions about whether the executive branch has the authority to suspend a statutory exemption created by Congress. The outcome could have broad implications for businesses that rely on low-value international shipments.
What Remains Uncertain
Despite recent court decisions, significant uncertainty remains.
Questions surrounding tariff refunds, future trade policies, and the legality of newly imposed tariffs are still being addressed through ongoing litigation. Businesses also face uncertainty over how future court rulings, executive actions, and congressional legislation may reshape U.S. trade policy in the months ahead.
Congress could choose to expand, limit, or clarify presidential tariff authority, while federal agencies continue developing procedures to implement recent court decisions. At the same time, additional lawsuits are expected to test the scope of existing trade laws and executive authority.
Looking Ahead
The trade environment will likely continue evolving throughout 2026.
For companies involved in importing, manufacturing, distribution, and retail, staying informed is more important than ever. Monitoring legal developments, maintaining close communication with customs professionals and trade counsel, and understanding how policy changes affect supply chains will be critical to navigating an increasingly complex regulatory environment.
Detroit Axle remains committed to advocating for transparent, predictable, and lawful trade policies that support American businesses while providing customers with quality automotive parts at competitive prices. As these legal and policy developments continue, Detroit Axle will provide updates on the issues shaping the future of international trade.